Federal Government Prepares to Default

Is George Costanza running the economy right now?  It seems that our policy makers are literally so disjointed that they will try anything to keep the U.S. from defaulting at this point, even the complete opposite of what they thought was working before.

What is the lesson that we can take away from the macroeconomic situation?  If anything can be applied down to the individual level, it’s that financing through debt is unsustainable in a world where some variables remain unmeasurable.  Could you finance your life with debt if you were 100% sure about your level of income for the entirety of your life and accurate about that prediction?  Sure.  You could live on credit in that case.

But big government has been overconfident in its predictions about certain things (things like growth of GDP, employment, interest rates, etc.), and fiscal policy has been anything but conservative.  Borrowing money to spend–relying on credit in that context, even on the best loan terms, is absolutely insane . . . especially for big government, which should be setting an example rather than modeling failure.

It’s time for our leaders to break out their calculators to see what can be done.  At some point, we have to feel the painful unwinding of the debt burden.  Time will only make the pain of default more intense.  Default is not the worst option in the world.  In fact, it might be a very good option.  Default may very well gives a blank canvas on which to build a new country, a canvas that does not rely on credit.

Life of Loans: The Unsustainable

We’re all in need of some help from time to time.  When the needed help is financial, any loan can seem like the best loan and a godsend.  But there is danger here in the form of relief and positive reinforcement.  The danger is that the thing which saves you can easily become the thing that destroys you. Debt certainly has the potential to destroy you.  While loans might make life palatable–even enjoyable–for a little while, the price is paid much later.  And it’s a high price . . . a much higher price than you would have to pay if you saved and bought you wanted or needed later.

Loans for Immediate Needs

Sometimes, however, needs are immediate.  That’s understandable.  When you or your family are in danger of losing your home or going hungry, get a loan, preferably from a friend.  Pay it back as soon as you can and don’t develop the mindset of believing that you can rely on loans in the future. The problem is that we are very trainable on a subconscious level.  The immediate relief you feel from financial stress after getting a loan may cause you to associate good feelings with borrowing money.  That can lead to you borrowing more money and allowing interest to accrue until you find yourself consumed with interest expense and unable to borrow any more.

Killing Your Credit

Learning to rely on loans is very dangerous for your credit.  While loan proceeds provide momentary glimpses of relief, the overall problem will culminate in a mountain of debt that can only be restructured so many times.  Eventually, your friends and family won’t even be willing to help you out with guarantor loans.  When the mountain of debt begins to crumble, you don’t want to be under it or anywhere even close to it. This is the domino effect in action, only with human psychology and money.  In some sense, debt and credit serve as the baseline of our entire economy.  Our government programs are underfunded and, as if that’s not bad enough, the money that was in many of those programs now serves as collateral for loans taken out to fund other programs.  It’s only a matter of time before the borrow and spend cycle fails.   Because that cycle creates the system that we live in, the mentality permeates to individuals who often hopelessly try to replicate it, not understanding that credit is not as good as earning–borrowing is not as good as owning. It’s just very, very difficult for many of us to overcome a mentality of entitlement.  We see other people enjoying things that we want too, but the real questions is this: Are you willing to bear a mountain later for a little joy now?  If not, then don’t borrow to spend.  Save to spend.  It’s sustainable.

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