Is George Costanza running the economy right now? It seems that our policy makers are literally so disjointed that they will try anything to keep the U.S. from defaulting at this point, even the complete opposite of what they thought was working before.
What is the lesson that we can take away from the macroeconomic situation? If anything can be applied down to the individual level, it’s that financing through debt is unsustainable in a world where some variables remain unmeasurable. Could you finance your life with debt if you were 100% sure about your level of income for the entirety of your life and accurate about that prediction? Sure. You could live on credit in that case.
But big government has been overconfident in its predictions about certain things (things like growth of GDP, employment, interest rates, etc.), and fiscal policy has been anything but conservative. Borrowing money to spend–relying on credit in that context, even on the best loan terms, is absolutely insane . . . especially for big government, which should be setting an example rather than modeling failure.
It’s time for our leaders to break out their calculators to see what can be done. At some point, we have to feel the painful unwinding of the debt burden. Time will only make the pain of default more intense. Default is not the worst option in the world. In fact, it might be a very good option. Default may very well gives a blank canvas on which to build a new country, a canvas that does not rely on credit.